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Can-US Yield Differentials Tumble On Conflicting Jobs Reports

CANADA
  • A weak Canadian jobs report and strong US payrolls report sees the Can-US 2Y differential 10.5bps lower at -56bps (with GoCs -5.5bps and Tsys +5bps since pre-data levels) at its lowest levels since early Dec’23 and before that Mar’23.
  • BoC-dated OIS has shifted to 20-21bps of cumulative cuts for the June meeting vs 17.5bp prior.
  • Desjardins, one of the more dovish houses, continue to see next week’s meeting used to open the door for a mid-year cut (as they did after the March meeting) whilst CIBC stick with their expectation of a first cut in June.
  • Canadian jobs surprisingly fell -2k (cons +25k) and the u/e rate increased 0.3pts to 6.1% (cons 5.9). The only factor that wasn’t dovish was permanent employee wage growth increasing a tenth to 5.0% Y/Y as expected, still stuck around the 5% Y/Y it’s averaged since mid-2022.
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