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CANADA: CAD Just Shy Of Top G10 FX Performer Despite Oil Slide

CANADA
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  • Broader-risk off moves on US sending additional troops to the middle east after Israeli strikes in Beirut has seen USDCAD lift off lows after a sizeable decline on the day.
  • It’s currently at 1.3507 off a low of 1.3490 (coinciding with support at a Fibo retracement of the Aug 28-Sep19 correction) in a step closer to a bear trigger at 1.3441 (Aug 28 low).
  • Gaining 0.45% on the day, CAD sits a little off AUD and NZD for top FX performer on the day, despite oil sliding.
  • Latest CFTC positioning data up to Sep 17 showed a further slight build in CAD net shorts to 28.5% of open interest from 27.4% and 26.8% in prior weeks. It does however broadly consolidate a sizeable correction from extremely large net shorts of 56% in late July/early Aug.
  • BoC-dated OIS has been unaffected by some at the margin hawkish developments including another strong wage settlement (Unifor-GM) and stronger consumer confidence. It prices a 38bp cut for Oct 23 as the market continues to weigh an upsizing after three consecutive 25bp cuts.
Source: Bloomberg
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  • Broader-risk off moves on US sending additional troops to the middle east after Israeli strikes in Beirut has seen USDCAD lift off lows after a sizeable decline on the day.
  • It’s currently at 1.3507 off a low of 1.3490 (coinciding with support at a Fibo retracement of the Aug 28-Sep19 correction) in a step closer to a bear trigger at 1.3441 (Aug 28 low).
  • Gaining 0.45% on the day, CAD sits a little off AUD and NZD for top FX performer on the day, despite oil sliding.
  • Latest CFTC positioning data up to Sep 17 showed a further slight build in CAD net shorts to 28.5% of open interest from 27.4% and 26.8% in prior weeks. It does however broadly consolidate a sizeable correction from extremely large net shorts of 56% in late July/early Aug.
  • BoC-dated OIS has been unaffected by some at the margin hawkish developments including another strong wage settlement (Unifor-GM) and stronger consumer confidence. It prices a 38bp cut for Oct 23 as the market continues to weigh an upsizing after three consecutive 25bp cuts.
Source: Bloomberg