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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
CANADA
- Today’s GDP data at 0830ET should be watched closely after the BoC’s surprisingly dovish commentary in July concerning the build in excess supply.
- Bloomberg consensus sees GDP growth of 1.8% annualized in Q2, mostly grouped between 1.6-2.0% but with two outliers at 1.3 (JPM) and 0.7 (Moody’s).
- The BoC forecast 1.5% for Q2 in the July MPR after the disappointing 1.7% in Q1, before an acceleration to 2.8% in Q3.
- The July advance for separate monthly GDP data by industry will help provide an early look as to how achievable this Q3 figure looks. For June, analysts just about stick with the 0.1% M/M indicated at last month’s advance but with chance of 0.0%.
- Latest retail sales data indicated a solid 0.6% M/M increase in July but this is only in nominal terms and with volumes up to June looking far more tepid.
- With the Bank estimating potential output growth of 2.4% in 2024 before 1.9% through 2025-26, any downside surprises for Q2 will see a further increase to ongoing excess supply.
- On the flip side, surprise strength could see greater odds of a temporary pause from the Bank at Oct or Dec meetings considering it is already priced to cut 25bp at Sep, Oct and Dec meetings. However, we feel that would have to be significant, with subsequent labour or inflation reports of more note here.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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