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Canada Jobs Report Preview – 0830ET

CANADA
  • Bloomberg consensus sees Canadian jobs growth slowing to a seasonally adjusted 20k in Feb after a surprisingly strong 37k in Jan.
  • That surprise strength had two notable caveats though: i) part-time jobs increased 49k (and have increased 54k over the latest three months vs just 14k for full-time), and ii) just like in the US, January seasonality biases a higher seasonally adjusted figure when the labor market is tight.
  • Today’s February data should give a better idea of underlying but it’s a volatile report even at the best of times.
  • The u/e rate is seen resuming its uptrend with a return to 5.8% after surprisingly dropping to 5.67% in Jan. This came with the labour force only increasing 18k vs the working-age population rising 128k, potentially seeing larger numbers of labour force entrants in the short-term.
  • Wage growth is seen easing two tenths to 5.1% Y/Y (hourly rate for permanent employees). One of the more dovish aspects of an otherwise hawkish leaning BoC on Wed was the acknowledgement that “there are now some signs that wage pressures may be easing”.
  • The labour force survey wage data have seen a particularly wide disconnect with payrolled employee wage growth (with its fixed weight index slowing to just 2.4% Y/Y in Dec), and a more material slowdown in the former would be notable.
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