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Canada Labour Report Keeps 50bp Hike Open Next Week

DATA REACT
  • Broadly in line if not modestly stronger labour report as employment gains were centred on full-time jobs and the unemployment rate fell a tenth more than expected to new lows of 5.3%.
  • Surprisingly, the latest drop in the u/e rate came from non-prime age participants though as the prime age u/e rate increased to 4.5% as more continue to join the workforce (unlike in the US, prime participation now 1.3pts above pre-pandemic levels).
  • Nothing here that should change consensus for a 50bp hike on Wed. No change in USDCAD but short-end GoCs continue to sell-off and now underperform Tsys with 2Y and 5Y yields up 8-8.5bps on the day, although BAX futures have largely unwound the initial move lower.

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