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CANADA: Provincial Elections Come As Precursor To Liberal Caucus Showdown w/PM

CANADA
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a pivotal week. On 23 October a caucus meeting of MPs from Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) will take place. There is significant speculation that a large number of members will call on the PM to stand down. This is spurred by plummeting opinion polling ratings and legislative paralysis following the collapse of the confidence and supply agreement with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) in September. 

  • Groups of MPs are reported as keen to encourage Trudeau to step down soon to allow a new leader to present their credentials to the electorate in good time before the next election due in around a year's time at the latest. There is no formal mechanism for MPs to remove Trudeau as party head, but a major groundswell of opinion among his caucus could make his position untenable.
  • Two provincial elections are taking place around the same time.
    • On 19 October, British Columbia held elections. Final results are not yet in, with the election on a knife-edge between the incumbent NDP and the centre-right Conservatives. The Liberal-aligned BC United did not even field candidates.
    • New Brunswick votes on 21 October. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives are looking to secure a third term but polls show the Liberals on course to emerge as the largest party amid divisions in the PC camp. A return to power for the Liberals could provide some marginal relief for Trudeau (despite the local-issue nature of the election). 
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Prime Minister Justin Trudeau faces a pivotal week. On 23 October a caucus meeting of MPs from Trudeau's centre-left Liberal Party of Canada (LPC) will take place. There is significant speculation that a large number of members will call on the PM to stand down. This is spurred by plummeting opinion polling ratings and legislative paralysis following the collapse of the confidence and supply agreement with the leftist New Democratic Party (NDP) in September. 

  • Groups of MPs are reported as keen to encourage Trudeau to step down soon to allow a new leader to present their credentials to the electorate in good time before the next election due in around a year's time at the latest. There is no formal mechanism for MPs to remove Trudeau as party head, but a major groundswell of opinion among his caucus could make his position untenable.
  • Two provincial elections are taking place around the same time.
    • On 19 October, British Columbia held elections. Final results are not yet in, with the election on a knife-edge between the incumbent NDP and the centre-right Conservatives. The Liberal-aligned BC United did not even field candidates.
    • New Brunswick votes on 21 October. The incumbent Progressive Conservatives are looking to secure a third term but polls show the Liberals on course to emerge as the largest party amid divisions in the PC camp. A return to power for the Liberals could provide some marginal relief for Trudeau (despite the local-issue nature of the election).