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Canada Q2 GDP Surprise Contraction

CANADA DATA
  • Q2 annualized GDP -0.2%, compared to the Bloomberg consensus of +1.2% and the Bank of Canada's +1.5% prediction from the July MPR.
  • Real GDP was nearly unchanged in the second quarter, following a 0.6% rise in the first quarter.
  • Q1 GDP revised down to +2.6% from +3.1%.
  • Decline led by the fifth consecutive fall in housing investment (-2.1%), smaller inventory buildup, and a decrease in net exports.
  • The household saving rate increased by +2.6%, one of the contributing factors was higher employee compensation of +2.2%.
  • This report, along with June GDP, marks the last major data releases before the Bank of Canada's interest rate decision next week, and reaffirms expectations for a pause.
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