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CANADA: Retail Sales Watched For Consumer Health Clues

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  • Both retail sales for Jul final/Aug advance and input cost inflation for Aug are released at 0830ET.
  • Barring some particularly large surprises for IPPI, we expect greater focus on the retail data considering the BoC’s desire to see growth improve to help prevent an additional widening in excess supply.
  • Analysts stick with the 0.6% M/M from last month’s advance release, helped by car sales seen bouncing back from June’s software outage-induced slide. Sales ex autos are seen at 0.3% M/M for a second month running.
  • Total retail volumes have been particularly tepid recently, rising just 0.1% M/M in June (hindered by car sales) after -0.7% in May for a 3m/3m rate of -0.7% annualized.
  • Whilst only nominal, the August advance release will provide a useful gauge on goods-based consumer momentum into Q3, after broader real GDP momentum started on a soft note back in July. 
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  • Both retail sales for Jul final/Aug advance and input cost inflation for Aug are released at 0830ET.
  • Barring some particularly large surprises for IPPI, we expect greater focus on the retail data considering the BoC’s desire to see growth improve to help prevent an additional widening in excess supply.
  • Analysts stick with the 0.6% M/M from last month’s advance release, helped by car sales seen bouncing back from June’s software outage-induced slide. Sales ex autos are seen at 0.3% M/M for a second month running.
  • Total retail volumes have been particularly tepid recently, rising just 0.1% M/M in June (hindered by car sales) after -0.7% in May for a 3m/3m rate of -0.7% annualized.
  • Whilst only nominal, the August advance release will provide a useful gauge on goods-based consumer momentum into Q3, after broader real GDP momentum started on a soft note back in July.