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/CANADA: TD analysts eyed NAFTA....>

US TSYS/RESEARCH
US TSYS/RESEARCH: /CANADA: TD analysts eyed NAFTA renegotiations as "first round
of NAFTA renegotiations is set to begin Aug. 16. Our base case remains for NAFTA
renegotiation to result in a new, modernized agreement, with a low risk of US
withdrawal (less than 5%)." 
- But they noted "several risks are underappreciated by markets in our view. The
greatest risk is policy uncertainty, especially given the non-trivial
probability for renegotiation talks to last years instead of months, which may
weigh on investment decisions." 
- They add "fixed income markets are more concerned with the outlook for central
banks, than with the NAFTA negotiations, which suggests that a major move in
rates would require direct commentary from the Fed or (more likely) the BoC." 

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