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CANADA: USDCAD Ease Back Towards 1.35, Macklem Later On

CANADA
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  • USDCAD pushes to session lows of 1.3501, reasonably close to yesterday’s low of 1.3487 as China stimulus overnight supported risk to unwind yesterday’s risk-off from Israeli strikes.
  • That low marks initial support, sitting above the bear trigger at 1.3441 (Aug 28 low), whilst resistance is seen at 1.3590 (Sep 20 high).
  • Today’s largest option expiry is biased higher with $729m at 1.3600, the NY cut landing with the US Conference Board survey and its increasingly important labor details.
  • Specifically for CAD, today sees flash mfg sales for August at 0830ET after a solid retail sales advance last week. It’s followed by BoC Gov. Macklem in a fireside chat at 1310ET - text will be made available at 1255ET but, unusually, seemingly with no media lock-up for it.
  • Macklem spoke last week in a discussion focused on AI – “AI adoption may add to inflationary pressures in the near term”. Any more typical mon pol comments are likely to stick to recent communication that further cuts can be expected if the BoC’s forecast plays out, but with scenarios for upsizing to 50bp cuts or pausing. 
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  • USDCAD pushes to session lows of 1.3501, reasonably close to yesterday’s low of 1.3487 as China stimulus overnight supported risk to unwind yesterday’s risk-off from Israeli strikes.
  • That low marks initial support, sitting above the bear trigger at 1.3441 (Aug 28 low), whilst resistance is seen at 1.3590 (Sep 20 high).
  • Today’s largest option expiry is biased higher with $729m at 1.3600, the NY cut landing with the US Conference Board survey and its increasingly important labor details.
  • Specifically for CAD, today sees flash mfg sales for August at 0830ET after a solid retail sales advance last week. It’s followed by BoC Gov. Macklem in a fireside chat at 1310ET - text will be made available at 1255ET but, unusually, seemingly with no media lock-up for it.
  • Macklem spoke last week in a discussion focused on AI – “AI adoption may add to inflationary pressures in the near term”. Any more typical mon pol comments are likely to stick to recent communication that further cuts can be expected if the BoC’s forecast plays out, but with scenarios for upsizing to 50bp cuts or pausing.