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CANADA: USDCAD Extends Reversal Of Tariffs Jump, GDP Tomorrow

CANADA
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  • USDCAD has extended its decline today, tracking close to 1.401 (-0.14%) late in the session as it almost fully reverses the tariff threat jump when it swung from ~1.3985 to a high of 1.4178 on Monday.  
  • CAD sits top of the G10 FX pack today in Thanksgiving-thinned trading after yesterday’s sizeable underperformance.
  • A post-Thanksgiving session sees option expiry kept on the light side tomorrow, with $367m at 1.4000 plus $756m at 1.3900-05.
  • That follows GDP data at 0830ET that includes the main Q3 release plus monthly data for the final Sept /advance Oct releases, with BoC-dated OIS showing 32-33bp of cuts vs closer to 30-31bp pre-tariff threats.
  • The 0.3% M/M for real GDP in the September advance left Q3 GDP growth tracking at 1.0% annualized in the monthly data. There can be differences with the expenditure-based quarterly GDP data that the BoC forecasts, but nevertheless the Bloomberg consensus shows similar with 0.9% annualized compared to the downward revised 1.5% the BoC forecast for Q3 in its October MPR.
  • The October advance will also be important for an idea of momentum heading into Q4, for which the BoC is eyeing 2% annualized GDP growth. 
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  • USDCAD has extended its decline today, tracking close to 1.401 (-0.14%) late in the session as it almost fully reverses the tariff threat jump when it swung from ~1.3985 to a high of 1.4178 on Monday.  
  • CAD sits top of the G10 FX pack today in Thanksgiving-thinned trading after yesterday’s sizeable underperformance.
  • A post-Thanksgiving session sees option expiry kept on the light side tomorrow, with $367m at 1.4000 plus $756m at 1.3900-05.
  • That follows GDP data at 0830ET that includes the main Q3 release plus monthly data for the final Sept /advance Oct releases, with BoC-dated OIS showing 32-33bp of cuts vs closer to 30-31bp pre-tariff threats.
  • The 0.3% M/M for real GDP in the September advance left Q3 GDP growth tracking at 1.0% annualized in the monthly data. There can be differences with the expenditure-based quarterly GDP data that the BoC forecasts, but nevertheless the Bloomberg consensus shows similar with 0.9% annualized compared to the downward revised 1.5% the BoC forecast for Q3 in its October MPR.
  • The October advance will also be important for an idea of momentum heading into Q4, for which the BoC is eyeing 2% annualized GDP growth.