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CANADA: USDCAD Has A Little More Scope For Two-Sided Moves On BoC

CANADA
  • USDCAD at 1.3548 is near unchanged on the day as it sits off earlier highs of 1.3566, with resistance seen at 1.3590 (20-day EMA).
  • Support meanwhile is seen at the bear trigger of 1.3441 (Aug 28 low) in a move that had seen the pair swing into oversold territory less than a month after being overbought north of 1.39 in late July.
  • The BoC decision at 0945ET and press conference at 1030ET sit either side of US JOLTS and the NY cut at 1000ET (expiry at 1.3515 has grown to a sizeable $1.17bn).
  • The recent slide in USDCAD saw CAD net shorts get trimmed to a still heavy 37% of open interest as of Aug 27 from 52% Aug 20 and a multi-decade high of 56% Jul 30. In doing so, it’s reduced what had been asymmetrical risk to surprises at a number of key data releases.
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