Canada’s Oil Sands Output Seen Rising by More Than Expected

Canadian oil-sands output will increase by about 0.5m b/d by 2030, higher than previously forecasted, according to Platts.

• Output will rise to 3.8m b/d by 2030, around 3% above Platts’ forecast from 2023.
• The higher output has been attributed to producers’ ongoing focus on maximising existing assets through investments in optimisation and efficiency.
• Oil sands output has increased 1.3m b/d during the past decade. An extended period of relatively higher oil prices in recent years is spurring more ambitious projects.
• Over the long term, there are headwinds which could contribute to a plateauing of oil sands production at the end of the decade amid a slowing inventory of potential optimisations and the oil and gas emissions cap, Platts said.
• Despite the expansion of the Trans Mountain pipeline by 590k b/d, additional capacity may be needed as soon as 2026 to prevent the appearance of regional price volatility.