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Capex outlook promising

AUSTRALIA DATA

Total capital expenditure for Q2 was weaker than expected falling 0.3% q/q and is trending down, but the breakdown showed resilience in machinery & equipment expenditure (+2.1% q/q). The decline in the total was driven by building & structures, which was down 2.5% q/q – the second consecutive fall.

  • Investment intentions for the current financial year rose by 11.7% after 12.3% in the last estimate. This is a positive for the Australian investment and growth outlook. It was 8.9% higher for investment in buildings & structures and 15.9% higher in machinery & equipment, continuing the trends in the actual expenditure data.
  • The mining sector expects to increase capital spending by 5.9%, lower than non-mining.
  • This data feeds into the national accounts and total capital expenditure has a good correlation with total gross fixed capital formation in GDP and machinery & equipment has a very high correlation with the private sector equivalent. But some caution is needed when interpreting the impact of this release on GDP, as Q1 has now been revised up from -0.3%q/q to +0.4%q/q to be more in line with the national accounts.
  • The state breakdown actually shows a better investment picture than the headline, with 5 of the 8 states and territories posting increases (including NSW & Victoria).


Australia: Real capital expenditure y/y%

Source: MNI - Market News, ABS

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