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Carlsberg (CARLB; Baa1, BBB+; S) {CARLB DC Equity} 1Q Results

CONSUMER STAPLES
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Firm results with price & volume growth. We have no issue with continuing buybacks given plenty of headroom on Baa1 ratings (1.5x FY23 vs. 2x ceiling). As noted before, it is our cheapest screen among high-grade brewers - offers pick up among all bar Asahi (Baa1, NR). It has a €1b line rolling off next month - could see supply on it.

  • Organic sales growth of +6.4% (c+5.5%) with price +4.4% (c+3.2%) & volume +2% (c+2.2%). Sales was broad based; WE (+5.1%), Asia (+7.6%) and Central/Eastern Europe & India (+7.6%).
  • Reported revenue was DKK1b (€134m) at gross +4.4%.
  • FY24 Guidance is unch for EBIT growth of +1-5% (c+4.2%)
  • It sees a FX impact of DKK-250m now (~€34m) (prev. DKK-100m) - for reference operating income for this year is expected (c) at DKK11.6b (~€1.6b) - i.e. not significant.
  • Its launching a new qtrly DKK1b buyback following same last qtr - if it continues at this pace it is on track for 4b in buybacks (vs. 3.2b last year) - that on top of dividends (~50% payout) at mid €3b should use up most of FCF this year.
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Firm results with price & volume growth. We have no issue with continuing buybacks given plenty of headroom on Baa1 ratings (1.5x FY23 vs. 2x ceiling). As noted before, it is our cheapest screen among high-grade brewers - offers pick up among all bar Asahi (Baa1, NR). It has a €1b line rolling off next month - could see supply on it.

  • Organic sales growth of +6.4% (c+5.5%) with price +4.4% (c+3.2%) & volume +2% (c+2.2%). Sales was broad based; WE (+5.1%), Asia (+7.6%) and Central/Eastern Europe & India (+7.6%).
  • Reported revenue was DKK1b (€134m) at gross +4.4%.
  • FY24 Guidance is unch for EBIT growth of +1-5% (c+4.2%)
  • It sees a FX impact of DKK-250m now (~€34m) (prev. DKK-100m) - for reference operating income for this year is expected (c) at DKK11.6b (~€1.6b) - i.e. not significant.
  • Its launching a new qtrly DKK1b buyback following same last qtr - if it continues at this pace it is on track for 4b in buybacks (vs. 3.2b last year) - that on top of dividends (~50% payout) at mid €3b should use up most of FCF this year.