MNI DAILY TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - Gold Trend Needle Points North

Price Signal Summary - Trend Structure In Gold Remains Bullish      

• The S&P E-Minis contract maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. A resumption of the uptrend would open 6145.26, a 1.236 projection of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - 6 price swing. Initial support to watch lies at 6024.9, the 20-day EMA. A bull cycle in the EUROSTOXX 50 futures contract remains intact and price is trading closer to its recent highs. The contract has recently breached the 50-day EMA. The clear break of this average strengthens a bullish theme. Sights are on 5015.00 next, the Oct 29 high. Initial support to watch lies at 4887.95, the 20-day EMA.          
• In FX, EURUSD continues to trade below 1.0630, the Dec 6 high. A resistance at 1.0566, the 20-day EMA, remains intact - for now. A close above this average would highlight a clear breach of it and signal scope for a stronger corrective recovery towards 1.0689, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction is down. First support lies at 1.0461, the Dec 2 low. GBPUSD is trading closer to its most recent highs. Gains are considered corrective and this has allowed an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key resistance to monitor is 1.2827, the 50-day EMA. The medium-term trend direction remains down. First support to watch lies at 1.2617, the Dec 2 low. USDJPY has traded higher this week and is holding on to its latest gains. The pair has breached both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. This signals scope for an extension higher. The next firm short-term resistance is at 153.66, 61.8% of the Nov 15 - Dec 3 pullback. A reversal lower would signal the end of the latest bounce and refocus attention on the bear trigger at 148.65, the Dec 3 low.
• On the commodity front, Gold has traded higher this week. A key short-term resistance at $2721.4, the Nov 25 high, has been pierced and this represents a positive development. A continuation higher would expose key resistance at $2790.1, the Oct 31 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the primary uptrend. First support is $2645.0, the 50-day EMA, followed by $2605.3, the Nov 26 low. In the oil space, a bearish threat in WTI futures remains present and this week’s gains are - for now - considered corrective. A resumption of the bear cycle would open $65.74, the Oct 1 low, and $63.90, the Sep 10 low and key support. For bulls, a stronger reversal to the upside would instead refocus attention on the key short-term resistance at $77.04, the Oct 8 high. Initial firm resistance to watch is unchanged at $72.41, the Nov 7 high.      
• In the FI space, the current bearish corrective cycle in  Bund futures remains in play and the move down is allowing a recent overbought condition to unwind. The trend structure remains bullish. Price has recently traded through 136.37, the 76.4% retracement of the Oct 1 - Nov 6 bear leg. A clear break of this level strengthens a bullish theme and opens 137.72, the Oct 1 high. Initial firm support to watch lies at 135.51, the 20-day EMA. It has been pierced, a clear break of it would expose 134.95, the Nov 26 low. Gilt futures have traded lower this week, resulting in a move through support at 95.49, the Dec 4 low, and 95.17, the Nov 28 low. A continuation down would expose key support at 93.40, the Nov 18 low. A breach of this support would be a bearish development and highlight a reversal. The next support lies at 94.66, the Nov 25 low. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 96.54, the Dec 3 high.

FOREIGN EXCHANGE