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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCarry-Over Bid Post-FOMC, 10Y Yield at 5M Lows
- Cash Tsys trading stronger on heavy volumes (TYH4>820k) following the FOMC steady rate annc, acknowledging inflation has eased but reiterated the Fed is "prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate".
- Support for Mar'24 10Y futures has receded slightly w/ Gilts, position adjusts following the BOE steady rate annc, no change to guidance: TYH4 +20 at 112-16.5 vs. 112-23 intra-day high, focus on technical resistance at 112-28.5 (1.618 proj of the Oct 19 - Nov 3 - Nov 13 price swing). Initial support well below at 111-09+ (High Dec 7 and a recent breakout level).
- 10Y yield below 4.0% this morning to 3.9301% -- appr 5 month lows. Curves mixed,: 3M10Y -5.941 at -144.706, 2Y10Y +2.353 at -39.074.
- SOFR futures remain strong discounting Chairman Powell's comment the Fed "prepared to tighten policy further, if appropriate" with SOFR Red pack (SFRZ4-SFRU5) up 0.150-0.175 at the moment.
- Projected rate cuts for early 2024 climb higher: January 2024 cumulative -4bp at 5.293%, March 2024 chance of rate cut climbs to -84.3% vs. -62% late Wednesday w/ cumulative of -25.1bp at 5.082%, May 2024 fully pricing in the first cut with cumulative -51.3bp at 4.819%. Fed terminal at 5.33% in Feb'24.
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.