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Carry-Over Weakness Ahead Headline Jobs Data, Shortened Holiday Week

US TSYS
  • Treasuries remained under pressure late Monday, US rate initially followed EGBs as French election risk premium is unwound.
  • Futures marched lower since ISM mfg and prices paid miss, while MFG PMI was revised down fractionally in the final June release to leave a still modest increase to 51.6 (cons & prelim 51.7) after 51.3 in May.
  • Other factors at play include carry-over month end positioning since Tsys reversed early support last Friday. Curve flattener unwound, while rate cut pricing cools.
  • Sep'24 10Y futures neared key support of 109-00+ (Jun 10 low), trading 109-05 (-26.5) vs. 109-02.5 low. 10Y yield taps 4.4991% high (+.1031), curves steeper: 2s10s +6.634 at -29.312 (May 3 levels).
  • Rather subdued trade despite the heavier volumes (TYU4>1.96M), focus on central bank conference in Sintra tomorrow, Fed Chair Powell, Lagarde and Campos Neto speaking at appr 0900ET.
  • Light data tomorrow picks up Wednesday with ADP private employment numbers, ISM services, and weekly claims as markets are closed for 4th of July holiday Thursday. Friday headline data risk: June employment data.
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