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JGBS: Cash Bonds Hold Their Bull-Flattener On Data-Light Session

JGBS
BulletAPACFixed Income BulletsJapanMarkets

JGB futures are little changed after giving up overnight strength, currently flat compared to settlement levels, on a data-light session.

  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s extension of the post-CPI rally.
  • The BoJ board will consider hiking the policy rate to 0.5% when it meets next week due to strong wage growth momentum, but it sees no issue holding the rate steady should market volatility increase following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20, MNI understands.
  • OIS market expectations indicate: an 88% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 92% chance by March; and a full 25bp increase fully priced in by May 2025 (105%).
  • Cash JGBs are 1-4bps richer across benchmarks beyond the 1-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bps lower at 1.198% versus the cycle high of 1.262%, set this week.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are wider.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Core Machine Orders, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the Tertiary Industry Index. 
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JGB futures are little changed after giving up overnight strength, currently flat compared to settlement levels, on a data-light session.

  • Cash US tsys are little changed in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s extension of the post-CPI rally.
  • The BoJ board will consider hiking the policy rate to 0.5% when it meets next week due to strong wage growth momentum, but it sees no issue holding the rate steady should market volatility increase following President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration on Jan 20, MNI understands.
  • OIS market expectations indicate: an 88% probability of a 25bp hike in January; a cumulative 92% chance by March; and a full 25bp increase fully priced in by May 2025 (105%).
  • Cash JGBs are 1-4bps richer across benchmarks beyond the 1-year. The benchmark 10-year yield is 0.9bps lower at 1.198% versus the cycle high of 1.262%, set this week.
  • Swap rates are flat to 2bps lower. Swap spreads are wider.
  • On Monday, the local calendar will see Core Machine Orders, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization and the Tertiary Industry Index.