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Castillo Extends Lead In Polls, GS Lower Sol Forecasts

PERU
  • Over the weekend a poll released by Instituto de Estudios Peruanos published in the daily La Republica, indicated leftist candidate Castillo apparently widening his as we approach the June 6 run-off.
  • Pedro Castillo has 41.5% support compared with 21.5% for market-friendly contender Keiko Fujimori, the polarizing daughter of a jailed former president.
  • Goldman Sachs commented that given the uncertainty around management of the country's mining resources under a new presidency, it is unclear that a rising price of copper would provide its typical uplift to the historically copper-sensitive PEN.
  • Additionally, increasing likelihood of strengthening support for Castillo will likely buoy volatility for the local currency.
  • For these reasons, they have shifted up their USD/PEN forecasts to 3.75, 3.70 and 3.60 in 3, 6 and 12 months (from 3.55, 3.50 and 3.50 previously).
  • Longer run forecasts still imply that PEN could participate in the broad Dollar weakness, especially if political gridlock in Peru could moderate some of the more destabilizing effects of any new policy platform.
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