CBA Card Data More Upbeat But Point To Soft Feb Retail Sales

CBA card data for the last 2 weeks is more optimistic than Westpac’s and CBA believes spending remains resilient but that it is normalising after Covid-related effects. There are early signs though that consumption is easing, especially on goods. CBA reported that spending increased slightly in the fortnight to March 3 but is still up about 16% y/y. The series is nominal and so a fair amount of this is inflation and it has also been boosted by an increase in immigration.

• Spending on services remains robust, especially on recreation and hospitality, but is easing which would also reflect the time of year. Spending on goods remains weaker, but general retailing and clothing & footwear saw modest growth while household goods are lower than a year ago. February retail sales data, released on March 28, are likely to be soft.