CBA Card Data Shows Elevated Spending Growth But Easing

CBA card transaction data is showing that nominal spending is up 15% y/y in the fortnight to February 3, which is down from around 20% in early January and is also being boosted by inflation. With rates likely to rise at least another 50bp on top of the 325bp already in place, the high number of upcoming refis and elevated inflation, consumer data will be watched closely to gauge the degree of the impact on spending.

• The data show the continued spending shift back to services with it reaching about 50% of the total over the last 4 weeks, consistent with pre-Covid trends.
• Services spending is up about 25% y/y while goods are up 7%. The CBA data show continued strength in spending on recreation, which includes travel, and eating out, whereas household goods are down 2.5% y/y.