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CBA Look To Fade recent widening In 10s Vs. U.S. Tsys

AUSSIE BONDS

Just worth noting that after hours on Thursday saw CBA recommend "buying 10-Year ACGBs vs U.S. Tsys at 32.5bp but only in one-third of our normal transaction size. We are also putting in a wide stop. We set the stop at 50bp and the target at 0bp. While the long ACGBs vs U.S. Tsy trade works best with a strong dovish RBA buying bonds - there's also a perverse scenario where the RBA relents, becomes more hawkish and (long) bond yields drop. The current market structure is, effectively, assuming that the RBA delays and allows an economic boom with notable inflation. If the RBA is moving earlier than that, then the unrestrained economic boom doesn't happen and the 10-Year and 30-Year bonds don't need as much inflation protection, so they rally."

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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