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KIWI: CBA note that "NZD is driven more by offshore, rather than domestic,
developments. The stronger than expected global econ recovery meant NZD hit our
year-end forecast of 0.6500 sooner than exp. In our view, the ongoing global
recovery will support a further strengthening in NZD/USD to 0.6700 by Jun '21.
Financial mkts continue to be buoyed by the ongoing US (and global) econ
recovery. The stronger than exp. US econ data confirm its recovery is intact,
despite a resurgence in US COVID cases. Daily credit & debit card spending
continues to track higher. As a counter-cyclical currency, we expect the USD to
weaken towards the end of '20 as the global econ improves... But local factors
also support NZD. NZ's key commodity exports have held up reasonably well.
Further, NZ has largely eliminated the virus & as a result, moved to Alert level
1 much earlier than exp. A brighter global outlook combined with NZ's success in
containing the virus has helped biz confidence bounce off Apr lows. Overall, we
expect NZD/USD will consolidate in its recent 0.6400-0.6600 range over the next
few months. Provided the current localised global lockdowns do not morph into
widespread lockdowns, we exp. NZD/USD to trend higher to 0.6700 by mid-2021."