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CBA on US influence on China/Australia dynamic

AUD

"A notable story in The Age newspaper today perhaps signals an inflexion point in the Australia‑China relationship. A senior US White House official is reported to have said that any improvement in the US‑China relationship must include an end to China's "economic coercion" of Australia. The official said this issue was discussed during the Quad leaders (Australia, India, Japan, US) meetings last weekend. The news is a potential sign that the new US administration could alter the dynamic in the Australia‑China relationship. Also, the gentle delivery of such a message to China marks the less confrontational style of the new US administration. For that reason, China is perhaps less likely to take offence. What does this mean for China's impediments to Australia's agricultural trade? Probably little that is immediately visible. An optimistic view, for existing impediments, is that those with obvious 'sunset' triggers (tariff terms, enquiries) might eventually lapse. But that is a slow‑burn process. Perhaps more immediately it makes new impediments less likely. Many in Australian agricultural have a degree of anxiety that their produce could be the next target. This development could ease that anxiety. We will be looking to see how, or indeed if, China responds. Silence is likely golden, as it would suggest China does not want to make its current displeasure with Australia an impediment to making progress on wider issues."

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