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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
AUSTRALIA DATA
The CBA’s household spending intentions for March rose 8% m/m to be up 3.8% y/y after -0.1% and 4.6% the previous month. The series is nominal and not seasonally- or calendar-day adjusted and March is usually a strong month and so it is more useful to look at the annual percent change. But March this year faced strong headwinds from base effects due to the bounce in post-Covid spending in 2022. The series peaked at 15.2% y/y in August 2022.
- It is worth noting that spending intentions in March 2018 and 2019, pre-pandemic, were 6.4% m/m and 6.2% respectively, less than March 2023. So, this month’s strength may be a tentative signal that spending is holding up but the CBA still expects it to moderate further going ahead.
- The strength in March was driven by transport (+19% m/m), entertainment (+17.2%), retail (+12.6%) and travel (+12.6%).
- Home buying spending intentions rose 6.2% m/m to be down 20.9% y/y but they do appear to have troughed consistent with house prices rising again. Given the volume of mortgage refis due to take place this year and the lagged impact of 350bp of tightening to date, CBA sees further downside to home buying intentions.
Australia retail sales vs CBA household spending intentions y/y%
Source: MNI - Market News/ABS/CBA
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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