CBI Survey Highlights Q1 Retail-Sector Woes

UK JAN CBI REPORTED SALES -23 (EXP -17); DEC +11

UK JAN CBI EXPECTED SALES FOR FEB -15

• The CBI distributive trades report for January signalled a weak start to 2023. The reported retail sales index fell by -23%, the largest decline since April '22, following a brief December rebound (Note: the CBI data tends to be relatively volatile).
• This was in contrast to the December national ONS print which reported another contractionary month of sales. Combined with a further fall in the GfK consumer confidence indicator, lacklustre spending outlooks remain a concern for the BOE but in line with its projections.
• Sales are seen declining at a softer pace in February, yet the substantial slowdown in orders to suppliers implies the sector is bracing for a muted first quarter as inflation dampens consumer demand and reduces profit margins.