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CBO Warns Treasury Risks Payment Default As Soon As July

US
  • The CBO estimate the US Treasury risks a payment default as soon as July, citing a window between July-September.
  • Bloomberg note that “The estimate suggests that lawmakers could have slightly more leeway than Treasury Secretary Janet L. Yellen estimated last month, when she told Congress that her department’s ability to keep financing America’s obligations could be exhausted in June.”
  • Revised forecasts see higher PCE inflation and lower GDP growth compared with last estimates from May’22: PCE see 3.3% Y/Y for 4Q23 (2.3% prior) and GDP seen at just 0.1% Y/Y (2.2% prior).
  • It sees a budget deficit at 5.3% GDP in FY23 before widening to 6.1% in both FY24 and FY25, with debt-to-GDP projected at a record 118% GDP in 2033.
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