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CBR Seen Cutting Rates Below Pre-Invasion Levels

RUSSIA
  • The CBR are today expected to ease policy further, with a slowdown in domestic inflation data as well as a sharp pullback in inflation expectations justifying further rate cuts. Consensus looks for a cut of 50bps today, although there remains the risk of faster easing into an expected slowdown across H2 this year. Full MNI Preview here: https://marketnews.com/mni-cbr-preview-july-2022-dire-demand-picture-makes-further-easing-likely
  • Late yesterday, Bloomberg reported that Russia are moving to annex occupied land in Ukraine by September, according to people familiar with the strategy. The moves would take place via referendums across occupied territories by September 15th – with Luhansk and Donetsk the initial areas of focus.
  • Markets expect the signing of a grain accord on Friday, with UN’s General Secretary flying to Istanbul today to witness the signature of the deal brokered by Turkey. The US has publicly expressed scepticism that Russia will abide by the terms of the deal, but the UN remain of the view that the deal will be critically important for global food security.
  • Russia have now formally added Denmark, Greece, Croatia, Slovenia and Slovakia to the list of ‘unfriendly’ countries. These countries will now be subject to further restrictions on trade and currency going forward.
  • In an article posted to the foreign ministry website, foreign minister Lavrov has stated that Russia is standing for the creation of a wholly independent and effective financial system that is invulnerable to foreign influence from unfriendly states.
  • Izvestia writes that consumer confidence has this week fallen to its lowest level since 2015, according to an academic study. The study concludes that psychological factors are the key determinant behind the decline, with respondents expecting a decrease in income going forward.
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