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CBRT Between a Rock & a Hard Place Amid Rising CPI and Erdogan Pressure to Cut Rates

TURKEY
  • Higher year-end inflation forecast likely to hamstring the CBRT in terms of space to ease without destabilising the Lira
  • Erdogan has taken his attention off the CBRT in recent weeks to focus on the East Med & Cyprus, but will undoubtedly see his attention return in the next few months
  • Sell-side estimates see inflation rising to 18-19% until September/October before moderating into year end
  • Failure to deliver cuts by year-end could also see Kavcioglu lose his job if Erdogan comes more forcefully back into the picture
  • CBRT GOVERNOR SAYS 'POLICY RATE TO BE ABOVE INFLATION'
  • all the right noises from Kavcioglu, but the market has quite a high bar in terms of delivering on the hawkish side as most know Erdogan will not let him raise further, even if inflation dynamics necessitate further tightening
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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