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CBRT Minutes Align With Recent Statement Pointing to the End of the Rate Cut Cycle

TURKEY

CBRT Minutes:

  • Nothing materially different in the minutes to the meeting itself. Key component is the “complete use of limited room” to ease policy - implying a near-term end to the easing cycle at 14.00%.
  • CBRT assesses inflation as volatile in the short-term and primarily due to temporary supply/demand-side factors and exchange rate risks – with commodity and administered prices leading the way higher.
  • LINK: https://www.tcmb.gov.tr/wps/wcm/connect/EN/TCMB+EN...
  • Despite the recent appreciation in the currency, delayed FX passthrough from Oct-Dec is still likely to drive inflation higher into 1Q22 towards the 25-30% range – keeping pressure on the CBRT and adding risks to the new FX-linked deposit scheme.
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com

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