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CBRT Minutes In Line with Meeting, Focus Shifts to August CPI For Pressure to Tighten

TURKEY
  • CBRT SAYS IT'S OBSERVING TREND AND COMPOSITION OF LOANS
  • CBRT: INFLATION EXPECTED TO BE VOLATILE OVER SHORT TERM
  • CBRT: CURRENT ACCOUNT IMPROVEMENT IMPORTANT FOR PRICE STABILITY
  • CBRT promises to keep rates above inflation to maintain a strong disinflationary effect until strong indicators point to a permanent fall in inflation and the medium-term 5% target is reached
  • No real surprises from the CBRT minutes - following on from prior guidance about keeping policy relatively tight
  • Pointed to upside pressures in PPI & CPI over the summer period that could lead to volatility in pricing behaviour
  • Focus will undoubtedly be on the next CPI print (expected to come in above 19.00%) to see in the CBRT will deliver on its promises for market appropriate policy or cave to Erdogan pressure for lower rates by keeping rates on hold or cutting
  • TRY is a bit stronger vs the USD after the minutes - in line with the prior reaction in which markets took CBRT promises of tightening at face value.
  • Nevertheless scope, for TRY instability in the coming months is rising as the CBRT will be pressed to deliver tightening with its credibility/autonomy on the line should it fail to deliver
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage
MNI London Bureau | +44 020-3983-7894 | murray.nichol@marketnews.com
BulletEM BulletEmerging Market NewsHomepage

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