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Bund put ladder


(X1) Bearish Focus


(Z1) Bearish Outlook Remains Intact


Latest structure


Bond Bear Cycle Extends

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  • EURHUF remains in a short-term downtrend, with the cross printing lower lows for a ninth consecutive session. Support at the 100-dma has given way, opening losses through the 50-dma of 353.50. A break opens 351.76 Fib support.
  • EURPLN is softer having failed to break above the 4.60 double top. Bulls need to retake this level to open 4.6224, 76.4% of the Mar 29 - Jun 7 downleg. Firm support is seen at 4.5309, Jul 15 low.
  • USDZAR remains softer having failed to break the 15.00 handle in late July. The pair holds between support at the 50-dma (successfully held at 14.22 on Wednesday) and resistance crossing at the 14.69 200-dma.
  • USDTRY is bouncing off the week's 8.2969 low, but faces a sharper challenge at the 8.5976 50-dma. A break back above here opens 8.6263 before the year's highs of 8.8008. Key support is unchanged at 8.2860, Jun 11 low.
  • USDRUB remains toward the bottom-end of the recent range, with 72.6851 the downside level to watch. Scope exists for a deeper pullback towards the 72.00 handle. The bull trigger is at 75.3497, Jul 8 high. Initial resistance is at 74.2742, Jul 26 high.