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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: EURPLN Extends Rebound From Last Week’s Low

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF traded higher again yesterday. The cross has stalled just ahead of the 50-day EMA that intersects at 362.14. This represents a key short-term resistance and a break, if seen, would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 363.78, 61.8% of the Dec 24 - Jan 13 downleg. Moving average studies still suggest the broader trend condition remains bearish and that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • EURPLN has recovered from last week’s low print of 4.5088 on Jan 20. The recovery has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and price is currently above the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the average would signal scope for a stronger recovery and open the 4.60 handle and 4.6180 further out, 23.6% retracement of the downleg between Nov 23 - Jan 20. Gains are considered corrective and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 4.5088 bear trigger.
  • The current downtrend in USDZAR remains intact. Last week’s break of 15.2633, Jan 13 low signalled a resumption of the downtrend and maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. This has opened 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. Note that there is a trendline support at 14.9801., drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low that also represents a key support. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 15.5732, the Jan 18 high.
  • USDTRY is unchanged and continues to trade sideways in a very tight range at the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price remains above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. Further gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would open 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB traded sharply higher yesterday. The clear breach of resistance at 77.1812, the Jan 6 high, confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average conditions remain bullish, highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on the 80.00 handle and 80.9503, the Nov 2, 2020 high. Yesterday’s low of 77.0603 marks initial support.
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