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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Break Higher And Resumes Its Uptrend

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF continues to appreciate. Price is approaching resistance at the 20-day EMA that intersects at 359.97 today. Clearance of this hurdle would open 362.19, the 50-day EMA. Moving average studies still suggest the broader trend condition remains bearish and that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • The low print in EURPLN last week strengthens the current bearish theme and highlights the potential for further weakness. Note too that the recent break of support at 4.5798, Dec 8 low also reinforced bearish conditions. The focus is on 4.5010 next, Sep 1 low. The current recovery is considered corrective. The cross is approaching initial resistance at 4.5543, the 20-day EMA. A firmer resistance is seen at 4.5828, the 50-day EMA.
  • The current downtrend in USDZAR remains intact. Last week’s break of 15.2633, Jan 13 low signalled a resumption of the downtrend. The move lower maintains a bearish price sequence of lower lows and lower highs and has opened 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. Note that there is a trendline support at 14.9706. This is drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low and also represents a key support. Firm short-term resistance is seen at 15.5732, the Jan 18 high.
  • USDTRY is unchanged and continues to consolidate in a very tight range at the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price remains above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. Further gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would open 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB is sharply higher today. The clear breach of resistance at 77.1812, the Jan 6 high, confirms a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average conditions remain bullish. Attention is on the 80.00 handle and 80.9503, the Nov 2, 2020 high. Today’s low of 77.0603 marks initial support.
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