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CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary: USDRUB Trend Needle Still Points North

EMERGING MARKETS
  • EURHUF gains stalled just ahead of the 50-day EMA on Monday - the EMA intersects at 361.94 today. This represents a key short-term resistance and a clear break, if seen, would signal scope for a stronger rally towards 363.78, 61.8% of the Dec 24 - Jan 13 downleg. Moving average studies continue to suggest the broader trend condition remains bearish and that recent gains are corrective. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 350.88, the Jan 13 low.
  • EURPLN is lower today but still holding onto the bulk of its recent gains following the recovery from last week’s low print of 4.5088 on Jan 20. The recent move higher has resulted in a break of the 20-day EMA and a print above the 50-day EMA, currently at 458.24. A clear breach of this 50-day average would signal scope for a stronger rally and open the 4.60 handle and 4.6180 further out, 23.6% retracement of the downleg between Nov 23 - Jan 20. Gains are considered corrective though and a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on the 4.5088 bear trigger.
  • The current downtrend in USDZAR remains intact. Attention is on trendline support at 14.9989, drawn from the Jun 7, 2021 low. This level represents a key support. A break would strengthen a bearish case and open 14.8637, the Nov 9 low. A firm short-term resistance is seen at 15.5732, the Jan 18 high.
  • USDTRY is unchanged and is still trading sideways in a very tight range at the 20-day EMA. The outlook is bullish and price continues to trade above the Dec 23 low of 10.2512 that also represents the key short-term support. A resumption of gains would open 14.3729, the Dec 11 high. A breach of this level would expose 15.2645, 61.8% of the Dec 20- 23 sell-off.
  • USDRUB traded higher once again yesterday. The recent breach of resistance at 77.1812, Jan 6 high, confirmed a resumption of the underlying uptrend and maintains the bullish price sequence of higher highs and higher lows. Note too that moving average conditions remain bullish, highlighting an uptrend. Attention is on the 80.00 handle (probed) and 80.9503, the Nov 2, 2020 high. Monday’s low of 77.0603 marks initial support.
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EM BulletHomepagemarkets-real-timeBulletEmerging Market News

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