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Pullback Considered Corrective


Holding Above Recent Lows


BLOCK, Large 3Y Midcurve Put Condor

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  • EURHUF stalled yesterday just above the 50-day EMA at 351.85. Moving average studies suggest a downtrend remains intact and yesterday's sell-off reinforces this theme. A firm support has recently been defined at 346.81, Sep 6 low. A break would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle that started Jul 26. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA is required to signal a stronger bullish reversal.
  • EURPLN traded higher last week and is holding onto gains. The recent climb is considered corrective though with a bearish threat still present. This follows the breach on Aug 31 of support at 4.5340, Aug 4 low. A resumption of weakness would open 4.4911, Jul 6 low. Key resistance is unchanged at 4.6017, Jul 20 high.
  • USDZAR short-term trend conditions remain bearish. This follows the recent breach of the base of a bull channel drawn from the Jun 7 low. The break lower signals scope for weakness towards 14.0212 next, Jun 25 low and 13.8801, the 76.4% retracement of the Jun - Aug rally. Note that moving average studies appear to be shifting to a bear mode, reinforcing a bearish theme. Initial resistance is at 14.4766, the 20-day EMA.
  • USDTRY is consolidating following last week's recovery from recent lows. The pair has defined a short-term support at 8.2642, Sep 2 low. Price is testing the 50-day EMA and an extension would signal scope for a climb towards 8.5604, Aug 20 high and 8.6815, Aug 11 high. A break of 8.2642 is required to confirm a resumption of bearish pressure.
  • USDRUB key short-term support is at 72.5556, Sep 3 low. A resumption of gains would refocus attention on resistance at 74.5861, Aug 20 high where a break is required to reinstate a bull theme. A move below 72.5556 would instead open 72.0405, Jun 25 low.