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Central Bank Decisions Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • Indonesia: Financial stability is likely to remain BI’s primary focus, which should see policy held steady at next week’s policy meeting. USD/IDR is off 2024 highs but remains susceptible to shifts in US yields and Fed expectations. A dovish surprise from the BI may also undermine FX stability at a time when Indonesia is going through a change of government. The rough sell side consensus is that BI cuts won’t materialise until the fed has either cut rates or close to doing so.
  • South Korea: The BOK is widely expected to keep interest rates on hold next week. Inflation has come down significantly but the central bank is likely to stay patient and wait for further confirmation of a reduction in inflation expectations before it switches to a more dovish outlook. The growth backdrop is not weak enough to warrant a dovish pivot either, with unemployment holding near cyclical lows. The BOK will also be mindful of the pushback in the timing of Fed rate cuts. An earlier pivot could undermine KRW sentiment.
  • Turkey: The CBRT meets on Thursday having very likely concluded its rate hiking cycle last month. While no change to the one-week repo rate is expected, the central bank is likely to adjust banking regulation further while continuing to use alternative tools to manage financial conditions. Given this is the first meeting under newly appointed Governor Fatih Karahan, the policy statement will be closely watched for any potential hawkish tweaks.
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