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Central Bank Decisions - Week Ahead

EMERGING MARKETS
  • APAC: Next week, the Bank of Thailand meets where a Bloomberg survey sees a +25bp hike expected, which would take the policy rate to 2.50%. The BOT has said the policy rate had not quite reached neutral, where the BOT wants it to be.
  • CEEMEA: The NBH are widely expected to cut the one-day deposit rate by 100bps, converging it to the 13% base rate which is seen unchanged. Beyond this juncture, expectations are less certain with NBH officials having pledged to simplify their monetary policy toolkit. The CNB is universally expected to keep the policy rate unchanged after Governor Michl effectively ruled out cuts in September or October. However, policymakers may already debate the strategies for future monetary easing.
  • LATAM: Banxico will keep the overnight rate at 11.25% as core inflation remains stubbornly above target. In Colombia, despite the finance minister continuing to advocate for a rate cut, headline and core inflation above 11.00% should prompt another unchanged decision, keeping the overnight lending rate at 13.25%.
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