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Central Bank Meetings Next Week

EMERGING MARKETS
  • CEEMEA: The Polish central bank is expected to keep policy unchanged next Tuesday. A lower-than-expected headline CPI read for December is unlikely to sway the thinking of the board, who are contending with uncertainty stemming from the still-in-progress 2024 budget plan as well as the expiration of several anti-inflation shield measures put in place by the former government. That said, a multi-year low for headline inflation and a sequential slowing of core CPI likely means the NBP inflation target will be met this year, and a resumption of the easing cycle can follow from Q2 onwards.
  • LATAM: In Peru, BCRP looks set to cut its policy rate by another 25bp to 6.5% on Thursday, following 25bp reductions at each of the previous four meetings. The bank is also expected to maintain its cautious tone, although tight monetary conditions, declining inflation and weak economic activity will keep the door open to further gradual rate cuts ahead.
  • APAC: All surveyed analysts expect the Bank of Korea to keep rates unchanged next Thursday. In November, the BoK turned slightly dovish, commenting that it would “...maintain a restrictive policy stance for a sufficiently long period of time”, compared with “for a considerable time” previously. The BoK then also marginally lowered its 2024 GDP forecast to 2.1% and raised forecasts for 2024 headline and core CPI to 2.6% and 2.3%, respectively."
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