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Central Bank Review - December 2023: Conservative Easing Cycle Continues

PERU
  • The Board of the Central Reserve Bank of Peru decided to cut the reference rate by 25 basis points to 6.75%. While this decision marked the fourth consecutive rate reduction, the December statement upheld the view that this action “does not necessarily imply a sequence of interest rate reductions.” The committee remains dependent on the incoming data and therefore appears cautious and flexible in their approach to ongoing monetary easing.
  • While the board acknowledged the ongoing disinflation trend, they remain cautious with levels of headline and core inflation remaining above target. The statement retained identical language regarding the disinflation trajectory, noting that “there is a more marked downward trend in inflation since June, as some of the transitory effects caused by restrictions in the supply of certain food items recede.” The board now expects headline inflation “to reach the target range in the coming months”, while Core CPI “will be within the target range by the end of 2023”.
  • Going forward, most analysts are expecting the BCRP to maintain the gradual level of easing, however, some believe current conditions still warrant an acceleration in the pace of easing.
  • The full review with analyst views is here:

    • MNI Peru Central Bank Review - December 2023.pdf


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