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Central Banks: More Tightening This Week, Ex Japan; Fed 75bp

Executive Summary:

  • While different banks started tightening at different times, this cycle is fairly synchronised (again apart from Japan) and many who started late are catching up with outsized moves.
  • The Fed is the focus for the week and it is projected to raise rates 75bp on Wednesday 21 September. The Riksbank should hike 75bp on Tuesday 20 September. Wednesday could see the final hike in Brazil (+25bp). On Thursday 22 September, the BoE, SNB and Norges Bank should all increase rates 50bp, while Indonesia should see 25bp and the Bank of Japan is expected to remain on hold. See MNI Central Bank Previews.
  • There is more tightening to come across the OECD and Asia as markets are not expecting terminal rates to be reached until the first half of 2023. And central banks have made it clear that they are committed to reducing inflation even at the risk of recession.

See this link for the full piece: Central banks 200922.pdf

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