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of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
GERMANY
A dramatic day in German politics concluded with much heat and little light yesterday after a meeting of Bundestag members from the centre-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) and its Bavarian sister party the Christian Social Union (CSU) saw a majority of members speaking in favour of selecting CSU head Markus Soeder as the 'Union parties' chancellor candidate for the September federal election.
- The Union parties hold 245 seats in the Bundestag. Of those, 66 spoke at a meeting yesterday with 44 in favour of Soeder, while 22 supported CDU head Armin Laschet being given the nomination.
- On Monday morning, the CDU presidium stated its support for Laschet to be the centre-right's nominee, but this has not ended the contest, with Soeder arguing his candidacy would give the CDU-CSU a better chance of holding onto power.
- Latest Forsa polling demonstrates Soeder's argument regarding public support:
- Laschet as Union candidate: Preferred Chancellor poll: Habeck (Greens): 22%, Scholz (SPD): 18% (+1), Laschet (CDU): 16% (-1), Forsa, 12/04/21. Chgs w/ 30 Mar-1 Apr 21.
- Soeder as Union Candidate: Preferred Chancellor poll: Soeder: 39% (+1), Habeck: 18% (-1) Scholz: 14% (+1). Forsa, 12/04/21. Chgs w/ 30 Mar-1 Apr 21.
- Party officials from both CDU and CSU have called on a decision to be made swiftly to avoid creating a public perception of disunity. Outgoing Chancellor Angela Merkel has evaded calls to act as a mediator or tie-breaker, saying she will not get involved.
- A major difficult comes in that there is no established process to get a chancellor candidate, with the decision usually reached by consensus behind closed doors. If consensus cannot be reached, a more open political conflict could emerge.
Chart 1. Betting Market Implied Probability of Becoming Next German Chancellor
Source: Smarkets
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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