Centre-Right KOK Party Retains Lead In Polls Ahead Of 2023 Election

Latest polling from Finland shows the centre-right National Coalition Party (KOK) retaining a lead over PM Sanna Marin's centre-left Social Democrats (SDP) ahead of the next general election, due by April 2023 at the latest.

• Kantar poll: KOK: 24.2%, SDP: 19.3% (+0.3), Finns Party (PS): 17.4% (+0.1), Centre Party (KESK): 10.1% (-0.3), Green League (VIHR): 9.2% (+0.2), Left Alliance (VAS): 8% (-0.3), Swedish People's Party (SFP): 4.4% (-0.2), Christian Democrats (KD): 3.3% (+0.1), Movement Now (LIIK): 1.9% (+0.2)
• Were these polls to be replicated in the election, Marin's 5-party coalition (SDP, KESK, VIHR, VAS, SFP) would likely hold a narrow majority. However, the National Coalition as the largest party would likely be afforded the first mandate to form a gov't. Historically the agrarian Centre Party has worked with parties of both the left and the right, and therefore could back a KOK-led gov't.
• While there is hope in Helsinki that the NATO accession process will be concluded long before then, there is little threat to the country's bid to join the defensive alliance. Both KOK and the right-wing populist Finns Party are both in support of Finland joining NATO.