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Challenging The Bear Market

US TSYS

10-Year Tsy Yields have moved towards the top of the near 35-Year bear channel, a break of the channel could be significant, although structural and demographic factors mean that most envisage lower bond yields vs. historical “norms” over the foreseeable future. Note that the upper bound of the channel resides at 2.5419% today, with 10s currently dealing around 2.41%. That ~13bp isn’t far away when we assess the recent daily ranges in yields, although sellers may be a little more wary as we approach the top of the channel, barring notable fundamental shifts.

  • The 14-month RSI hasn’t crossed above the 70 overbought level in yield terms i.e. oversold in price terms, but isn’t far off, sitting just below 69.
Fig. 1: U.S. 10-Year Tsy Yields, Monthly (%

Source: MNI - Market News/Bloomberg

MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com
MNI London Bureau | +44 0203-865-3809 | anthony.barton@marketnews.com

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