Change In CEE Gov'ts Both A Blow & Boon To Orban (2/2)

While PM Viktor Orban's relations with the EU remain in a fragile state (see 1133BST bullet), two recent elections in the region have likely changed the nature of local alliances for Budapest. The last two weeks have seen a pivot in the political stance of two gov'ts the 'Visegrad 4' (Czechia, Hungary, Poland, Slovakia):

• In recent years, Hungary has often stood alongside the Polish gov't in its disagreements with Brussels over rule of law issues that have seen some cohesion and COVID recovery funding frozen. However, the defeat of the right-wing populist gov't of PM Mateusz Morawiecki in the 15 Oct election in Poland is likely to see a more pro-EU administration take power in Warsaw. The new head of gov't is set to be former Polish PM Donald Tusk. Tusk locked horns with Orban on many occasions during the former's time as President of the European Council from 2014-19 and will not be an ally of Orban's in Budapest's dealings with Brussels.
• However, the loss of one 'illiberal' ally could be eased by the return of another. Slovakia's former PM Robert Fico has reached a coalition agreement that will return him to power at the head of a populist coalition that seeks to halt funding to Ukraine and could engage in more sparring with Brussels. This could see Slovakia replacing Poland as Hungary's key ally in avoiding measures from Brussels that require unanimity.