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MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
SHORT-STERLING
- There's been a lot of focus for how much more has been priced into UK rate markets given Paragraph 65, the lack of pushback, Pill's hawkish comments and then Saunders message that market pricing is appropriate.
- As the chart shows since the September MPC meeting we have priced in an extra 50+bp of hikes within the next 12 months.
- What is also clear from the chart is that the extra hikes priced into the next 12 months are not just hikes being brought forward, the terminal rate is also expected to be higher than it was previously.
- Note that we have 3 MPC members due to speak over the next couple of days:
- Cunliffe due up in pre-recorded speech at 14:30BST today (not really expected to talk monpol - but don't rule it out). Also the website for the event still has the time at 15:30BST - so it might be later than expected!
- Tenreyro speech tomorrow at 11:10BST on dominant currencies and monpol - there is a Q&A worth paying attention to. Still considered one of the four more dovish members, but will be interesting to see if her view has evolved.
- Mann speech tomorrow at 15:40BST speech on coping with the legacy of Covid-19 - expected to be more focused on the euro area - but again there is a Q&A. She's unlikely to become more hawkish though.
- Cunliffe again tomorrow at 19:00BST at an IIF event on CBDCs - not likely to mention monpol.
Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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