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Cheapening Now Apparent

AUSSIE BONDS

With nothing on the local calendar Aussie bonds give back early strength with YM -3.0 and XM +0.5, as U.S. Tsy futures drift lower in early Asian trading (cash Tsys are closed for observance of the Presidents Day holiday). Cash ACGB yields are ~3bp higher than their respective morning lows, with the 3/10 cash curve maintaining its 3bp flattening on the day.

  • Swaps, mirroring bonds, also see rates move higher from morning lows but remain 2-4bp lower on the day with the 3s10s curve 4bp flatter.
  • A reds-led reversal was seen in Bills alongside the move in bonds, with the strip +2 to -3, twist steepening, versus small gains in the morning.
  • March meeting RBA-dated OIS holds its morning level at an 88% chance of a 25bp hike. Terminal rate expectations however move 3bp higher from morning levels to be back near the top of its recent 4.10 to 4.22% trading range.
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