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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.
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Free AccessCheaper In Futures Roll-Impacted Dealings, US Tsys Cheaper On Friday After Payrolls Data
In future roll-impacted dealings, ACGBs (YM -6.2 & XM -5.2) are cheaper after November’s Non-Farm Payrolls beat expectations across almost all metrics on Friday.
- Average hourly earnings growth (+0.4% m/m vs. +0.3% est. & +0.2% prior) was also hotter than expected, which could add to the Federal Reserve's resolve to keep rates higher for longer to cool the labour market and rein in inflation.
- US tsy yields gapped higher on the data but quickly scaled back as the market digested the down-revisions to prior and unrounded releases. The 2-year rate was 13bps cheaper at 4.72%, while the 10-year yield increased 8bps to 4.23%.
- The long-term cost of the federal government’s debt interest bill has blown out by A$80bn since the May budget, overtaking the National Disability Insurance Scheme as the Commonwealth’s fastest-growing expense. (See AFR link)
- Cash ACGBs are 5-6bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential 3bps tighter at +12bps.
- Swap rates are 4-5bps higher, with EFPs 1bps narrower.
- The bills strip pricing -3 to -7, with late reds leading.
- RBA-dated OIS pricing is 1-6bps firmer across meetings, late-2024 leading.
- There are no data or events in Australia today but on Tuesday RBA Governor Bullocks speaks and employment data prints on Thursday.
To read the full story
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Why MNI
MNI is the leading provider
of intelligence and analysis on the Global Fixed Income, Foreign Exchange and Energy markets. We use an innovative combination of real-time analysis, deep fundamental research and journalism to provide unique and actionable insights for traders and investors. Our "All signal, no noise" approach drives an intelligence service that is succinct and timely, which is highly regarded by our time constrained client base.Our Head Office is in London with offices in Chicago, Washington and Beijing, as well as an on the ground presence in other major financial centres across the world.