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Cheaper, Narrow Ranges, CPI Monthly Tomorrow

AUSSIE BONDS

ACGBs (YM -2.0 & XM -4.0) are holding cheaper after dealing in relatively narrow ranges in today’s Sydney session. The domestic calendar has been light.

  • Cash ACGBs are 2-4bps cheaper, with the AU-US 10-year yield differential unchanged at -19bps.
  • Swap rates are 1bps higher.
  • The bills strip is slightly cheaper, with pricing flat to -2.
  • RBA-dated OIS pricing is slightly mixed. A cumulative 41bps of easing is priced by year-end.
  • (AFR) Unions’ push for a 5 per cent increase in minimum rates for 2.9 million workers will ensure interest rates remain higher for longer and restrict hiring, businesses warned. (See link)
  • (AFR Ed Shann) I doubt the current optimism that falling inflation will allow interest rate cuts anytime soon. In fact, it is possible rates will need to rise again to tame domestic inflation. (See link)
  • Tomorrow, the local calendar will see the CPI Monthly for February. Consensus is at 3.5% y/y from 3.4% in January.
  • The Commonwealth Bank is predicting a rise to 3.8% y/y, with expectations that Q1 Trimmed Mean CPI will rise 0.8% q/q when the quarterly data is released on April 24.
  • Tomorrow, the AOFM plans to sell A$800mn of the 4.5% Apr-33 bond.
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